Company valuation

It is about a company valuation. The company is Expedia Inc. I will attached the Template that I have worked on in a similar assignment (Exxon Mobil Valuation). Do you have any experiences with valuation? It requires some research into the Financial Statements such as Income statement, Balance Sheet, and Cash flow. As i have mentioned above, I will attached a sample, that will help as a guide while working on the valuation.

Templates

Balance Sheet
As of 12/31/…
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FC2015 FC2016 FC2017 FC2018 FC2019 Hist CAGR FC CAGR NOTES
Cash $10,693 $7,825 $12,664 $9,582 $4,644 $4,616 $2,781 $2,954 $3,106 $3,253 $3,363 -15.5% 4.9% from statement of cash flows
Cash – Restricted – 628 404 341 269 42 217 230 242 253 262 -49.1% 4.9%
Marketable Securities 169 2 – – – – – – – – – -100.0% 0.0%
Notes and Accounts Receivable 27,645 32,284 38,642 34,987 33,152 28,009 17,920 18,046 17,982 17,849 17,490 0.3% -0.6%
Inventory
Crude oil, products and merchandise 8,718 9,852 11,665 10,836 12,117 12,384 7,226 7,678 8,072 8,453 8,739 7.3% 4.9%
Materials and supplies 2,835 3,124 3,359 3,706 4,018 4,294 2,356 2,503 2,631 2,756 2,849 8.7% 4.9%
Other Current Assets 5,175 5,269 6,229 5,008 5,108 3,565 3,186 3,385 3,558 3,726 3,852 -7.2% 4.9%
Total current assets 55,235 58,984 72,963 64,460 59,308 52,910 33,685 34,795 35,591 36,290 36,555 -0.9% 2.1%
Investments, advances and long-term receivables 31,665 35,338 34,333 34,718 36,328 35,239 36,001 36,779 37,574 38,387 39,216 2.2% 2.2%
PP&E, gross 305,906 373,938 393,995 409,314 434,517 446,789 459,814 470,371 478,877 485,698 491,147 7.9% 1.7%
Accumulated depreciation (166,790) (174,390) (179,331) (182,365) (190,867) (194,121) (199,780) (204,367) (208,063) (211,026) (213,394) 3.1% 1.7%
PP&E, net 139,116 199,548 214,664 226,949 243,650 252,668 260,034 266,004 270,815 274,672 277,753 12.7% 1.7%
Other assets, including intangibles, net 7,307 8,640 9,092 7,668 7,522 8,676 9,045 9,429 9,830 10,248 10,683 3.5% 4.2%
Total Assets $233,323 $302,510 $331,052 $333,795 $346,808 $349,493 $338,764 $347,007 $353,810 $359,596 $364,208 8.4% 1.8%

Accounts payable $41,275 $50,034 $57,067 $50,728 $48,085 $42,227 $31,456 $33,421 $35,136 $36,796 $38,041 0.5% 4.9%
Short-term note (Notes and loans payable) 2,476 2,787 7,711 3,653 15,808 17,468 11,791 12,527 13,170 13,792 14,259 47.8% 4.9%
Income Taxes Payable 8,310 9,812 12,727 9,758 7,831 4,938 3,032 2,859 2,685 2,510 2,300 -9.9% -6.7%
Total current liabilities 52,061 62,633 77,505 64,139 71,724 64,633 46,279 48,807 50,991 53,098 54,599 4.4% 4.2%
Long-term debt 7,129 12,227 9,322 7,928 6,891 11,653 37,001 44,973 53,546 63,231 75,589 10.3% 19.6%
Postretirement benefits reserves 17,942 19,367 24,994 25,267 20,646 25,802 27,632 29,591 31,689 33,937 36,343 7.5% 7.1%
Long-term obligations to equity companies – – 1,808 3,555 4,742 5,325 5,559 5,645 5,677 5,688 5,692 43.3% 0.6%
Other long-term obligations 17,651 20,454 20,061 23,676 21,780 21,786 21,792 21,798 21,804 21,810 21,816 4.3% 0.0%
Deferred taxes (Deferred income tax liabilities) 23,148 35,150 36,618 37,570 40,530 39,230 24,073 25,576 26,889 28,159 29,112 11.1% 4.9%
Total liabilities 117,931 149,831 170,308 162,135 166,313 168,429 162,335 176,391 190,596 205,923 223,152 7.4% 8.3%

Common Stock 5,503 9,371 9,512 9,653 10,077 10,792 12,348 14,129 16,166 18,497 21,164 14.4% 14.4%
Retained earnings 276,937 298,899 330,939 365,727 387,432 408,384 421,198 434,921 449,560 465,099 481,265 8.1% 3.4% 20,952
Accumulated other comprehensive earnings – – (9,123) (12,184) (10,725) (18,957) (24,191) (30,869) (39,391) (50,267) (64,144) 27.6% 27.6%
Cummulative foreign exchange translation adjustment 4,402 5,011 – – – – – – – – – -100.0% 0.0%
Postretirement benefirst reserves adjustment (9,863) (9,889) – – – – – – – – – -100.0% 0.0%
Unrealized gain/(loss) on cash flow hedges – 55 – – – – – – – – – 0.0% 0.0%
Treasury stock (166,410) (156,608) (176,932) (197,333) (212,781) (225,820) (240,037) (255,150) (271,214) (288,289) (306,440) 6.3% 6.3%
ExxonMobel share of equity 110,569 146,839 154,396 165,863 174,003 174,399 169,318 163,031 155,121 145,040 131,846 9.5% -6.1%
Noncontrolling interests 4,823 5,840 6,348 5,797 6,492 6,665 7,110 7,586 8,093 8,633 9,210 6.7% 6.7%
Total shareholders’ equity 115,392 152,679 160,744 171,660 180,495 181,064 176,429 170,616 163,213 153,673 141,056 9.4% -5.4%
Total Liabilities + Shareholders’ Equity $233,323 $302,510 $331,052 $333,795 $346,808 $349,493 $338,764 $347,007 $353,810 $359,596 $364,208 8.4% 1.8%
check for imbalance – – – – – – – – – – –

Exxon Mobil Corporation
Statement of Cash Flows
For year ended 12/31/…
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FC2015 FC2016 FC2017 FC2018 FC2019 Hist CAGR FC CAGR NOTES
Cash flows from operating activities
Net income including controlling interests $19,658 $31,398 $42,206 $47,681 $33,448 $33,615 $18,918 $20,252 $21,590 $22,903 $23,822 11.3% 5.9% revenue – increase in receivables
Depreciartion and depletion 11,917 14,760 15,583 15,888 17,182 17,297 18,013 18,427 18,760 19,027 19,241 7.7% 1.7%
Deferred income tax charges – (1,135) 142 3,142 754 1,540 741 741 741 741 741 $741 0.0% COGS + increase in inventory – increase in payables
Postretirement benefits expense in excess of net payments (1,722) 1,700 544 (315) 2,291 524 504 504 504 504 504 $504 0.0% SG&A – depreciation – increase in accruals
Other long-term obligation provisions 731 160 (151) 1,643 (2,566) 1,404 204 204 204 204 204 $204 0.0% Interest expense adjusted for interest payable
Dividends received greater than equity in earnings of equity companies (483) (596) (273) (1,157) 3 (358) (477) (477) (477) (477) (477) $(477) 0.0% Income tax expense adjusted for deferred tax liability
Changes in working capital, excluding cash and debt
Notes and accounts recievable (-) (3,170) (5,863) (7,906) (1,082) (305) 3,118 10,089 (126) 64 133 359 -199.7% -56.6%
Inventories (-) 459 (1,148) (2,208) (1,873) (1,812) (1,343) (7,096) 598 523 506 379 -224.0% #NUM!
Other current assets (-) 132 913 222 (42) (105) (68) 379 (199) (174) (168) (126) -187.6% #NUM! starting line
Accounts and other payables (+) 1,420 9,943 8,880 3,624 (2,498) (6,639) (18,354) 2,528 2,184 2,106 1,502 -236.1% #NUM!
Net (gain) on asset sales (488) (1,401) (2,842) (13,018) (1,828) (3,151) (3,788) (3,788) (3,788) (3,788) (3,788) $(3,788) 0.0% non-cash, add back
All other items – net (16) (318) 1,148 1,679 350 (823) 337 337 337 337 337 $337 0.0% non-cash, add back
Net cash provided (used) by operating activities $28,438 $48,413 $55,345 $56,170 $44,914 $45,116 $19,469 $38,999 $40,466 $42,026 $42,696 9.7% 21.7% non-operating, subtract if gain

Cash flows from investing activities
Additions to PP&E (22,491) (26,871) (30,975) (34,271) (33,669) (32,952) (35,446) (36,260) (36,916) (37,442) (37,862) 7.9%
Proceeds associated with sales of subs, PP&E etc 1,545 3,261 11,133 7,655 2,707 4,035 5,056 5,056 5,056 5,056 5,056 $5,056
Decrease/increase in restricted cash – (628) 224 63 72 227 (175) (14) (12) (11) (9) $(7)
Additional investments and advances (2,752) (1,239) (3,586) (598) (4,435) (1,631) (2,374) (2,374) (2,374) (2,374) (2,374) $(2,374)
Collection of advances 724 1,133 1,119 1,550 1,124 3,346 1,499 1,499 1,499 1,499 1,499 $1,499
Additions to marketable securities (16) (15) (1,754) – – – – – – – – -100.0%
Sales of marketable securities 571 155 1,674 – – – – – – – – -100.0%
Net cash provided (used) by investing activities $(22,419) $(24,204) $(22,165) $(25,601) $(34,201) $(26,975) $(31,439) $(32,092) $(32,746) $(33,272) $(33,689) 3.8%

Cash flows from financing activities
Additions to long-term debt 225 1,143 702 995 345 5,731 25,348 7,972 8,572 9,685 12,358 $1,524
Reductions in long-term debt (68) (6,224) (266) (147) (13) (69) (1,131) (1,131) (1,131) (1,131) (1,131) $(1,131)
Additions to short-term debt 1,336 598 1,063 958 16 – 662 662 662 662 662 $662
Reductions in short-term debt (1,575) (2,436) (1,103) (4,488) (756) (745) (1,851) (1,851) (1,851) (1,851) (1,851) $(1,851)
Additions/(reductions) in debt with three months or less maturity (71) 709 1,561 (226) 12,012 2,049 2,672 2,672 2,672 2,672 2,672 $2,672
Cash dividends to ExxonMobil shareholders (8,023) (8,498) (9,020) (10,092) (10,875) (11,568) (5,254) (5,627) (6,002) (6,371) (6,629) 7.6%
Cash dividends to noncontrolling interests (280) (281) (306) (327) (304) (248) (291) (291) (291) (291) (291) $(291)
Changes in noncontrolling interests (113) (7) (16) 204 (1) – – – – – – $10
Tax benefits related to stock-based awards 237 122 260 130 48 115 152 152 152 152 152 $152
Common stock acquired (19,703) (13,093) (22,055) (21,068) (15,998) (13,183) (14,217) (15,113) (16,064) (17,075) (18,150) $(17,517)
Common stock sold 752 1,043 924 193 50 30 499 499 499 499 499 $499
Net cash used in financing activities $(27,283) $(26,924) $(28,256) $(33,868) $(15,476) $(17,888) $6,588 $(12,055) $(12,782) $(13,049) $(11,709) -8.1%

Effect of exchange rate chanes on cash 520 (153) (85) 217 (175) (281) 7 7 7 7 7 $7
Increase/(decrease) in cash equivalents (20,744) (2,868) 4,839 (3,082) (4,938) (28) (5,382) (5,148) (5,062) (4,294) (2,702) -73.3%
Cash and equivalents at beginning of year 31,437 10,693 7,825 12,664 9,582 4,644 4,616 2,781 2,954 3,106 3,253 -31.8%
Cash and equivalents at end of year $10,693 $7,825 $12,664 $9,582 $4,644 $4,616 2,781 2,954 3,106 3,253 3,363 -15.5%

Cash, end of year feeds the balance sheet cash figure

Noncash investing and financing activities
Issuance of common stock for PP&E $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

Common-size Income Statement 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FC2015 FC2016 FC2017 FC2018 FC2019 Avg 09-14 NOTES
Revenue 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Crude oil and product purchases 49.2% 51.7% 54.8% 54.8% 55.7% 54.9% 54.4% 54.4% 54.4% 54.4% 54.4% 53.5%
Production and manufacturing expenses 10.6% 9.3% 8.3% 8.0% 9.2% 9.9% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.2%
Exploration expenses 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
Sales-based taxes 8.4% 7.4% 6.9% 6.7% 7.0% 7.1% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.3%
Other taxes and duties 11.2% 9.4% 8.2% 7.4% 7.6% 7.8% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.6%
COGS 80.0% 78.4% 78.6% 77.4% 80.0% 80.1% 78.9% 78.9% 78.9% 78.9% 78.9% 79.1%
Gross profit 20.0% 21.6% 21.4% 22.6% 20.0% 19.9% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 20.9%
SG&A 4.7% 3.8% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.4%
Operating income (EBITDA) 15.2% 17.7% 18.3% 19.8% 17.1% 16.8% 17.9% 17.9% 17.9% 17.9% 17.9% 17.5%
Depreciation and depletion 3.8% 3.9% 3.2% 3.3% 3.9% 4.2% 6.5% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 5.7% 3.7%
Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) 11.4% 13.9% 15.1% 16.4% 13.2% 12.6% 11.5% 11.7% 11.9% 12.1% 12.2% 13.8%
Interest expense, net 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Earnings before taxes 11.2% 13.8% 15.1% 16.4% 13.2% 12.5% 11.3% 11.4% 11.6% 11.7% 11.8% 13.7%
Income tax expense 4.9% 5.6% 6.4% 6.5% 5.5% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 5.5%
Net income 6.3% 8.2% 8.7% 9.9% 7.6% 8.2% 6.8% 6.9% 7.0% 7.0% 7.1% 8.2%

Common-size Balance Sheet 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FC2015 FC2016 FC2017 FC2018 FC2019 Avg 09-14 NOTES
Cash 4.6% 2.6% 3.8% 2.9% 1.3% 1.3% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 2.8% -22.0%
Cash – Restricted 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Marketable Securities 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notes and Accounts Receivable 11.8% 10.7% 11.7% 10.5% 9.6% 8.0% 5.3% 5.2% 5.1% 5.0% 4.8% 10.4%
Inventory 5.0% 4.3% 4.5% 4.4% 4.7% 4.8% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% 4.6%
Crude oil, products and merchandise 3.7% 3.3% 3.5% 3.2% 3.5% 3.5% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 3.5%
Materials and supplies 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 1.1%
Other Current Assets 2.2% 1.7% 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.6%
Total current assets 23.7% 19.5% 22.0% 19.3% 17.1% 15.1% 9.9% 10.0% 10.1% 10.1% 10.0% 19.5%
Investments, advances and long-term receivalbes 13.6% 11.7% 10.4% 10.4% 10.5% 10.1% 10.6% 10.6% 10.6% 10.7% 10.8% 11.1%
PP&E, gross 131.1% 123.6% 119.0% 122.6% 125.3% 127.8% 135.7% 135.6% 135.3% 135.1% 134.9% 124.9%
Accumulated depreciation -71.5% -57.6% -54.2% -54.6% -55.0% -55.5% -59.0% -58.9% -58.8% -58.7% -58.6% -58.1%
PP&E, net 59.6% 66.0% 64.8% 68.0% 70.3% 72.3% 76.8% 76.7% 76.5% 76.4% 76.3% 66.8%
Other assets, including intangibles, net 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.3% 2.2% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.6%
Total Assets 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Accounts payable 17.7% 16.5% 17.2% 15.2% 13.9% 12.1% 9.3% 9.6% 9.9% 10.2% 10.4% 15.4%
Short-term note (Notes and loans payable) 1.1% 0.9% 2.3% 1.1% 4.6% 5.0% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 2.5%
Income Taxes Payable 3.6% 3.2% 3.8% 2.9% 2.3% 1.4% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 2.9%
Total current liabilities 22.3% 20.7% 23.4% 19.2% 20.7% 18.5% 13.7% 14.1% 14.4% 14.8% 15.0% 20.8%
Long-term debt 3.1% 4.0% 2.8% 2.4% 2.0% 3.3% 10.9% 13.0% 15.1% 17.6% 20.8% 2.9%
Postretirement benefits reserves 7.7% 6.4% 7.5% 7.6% 6.0% 7.4% 8.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.4% 10.0% 7.1%
Long-term obligations to equity companies 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 0.8%
Other long-term obligations 7.6% 6.8% 6.1% 7.1% 6.3% 6.2% 6.4% 6.3% 6.2% 6.1% 6.0% 6.7%
Deferred taxes (Deferred income tax liabilities) 9.9% 11.6% 11.1% 11.3% 11.7% 11.2% 7.1% 7.4% 7.6% 7.8% 8.0% 11.1%
Total liabilities 50.5% 49.5% 51.4% 48.6% 48.0% 48.2% 47.9% 50.8% 53.9% 57.3% 61.3% 49.4%

Common Stock 2.4% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 3.6% 4.1% 4.6% 5.1% 5.8% 2.9%
Retained earnings 118.7% 98.8% 100.0% 109.6% 111.7% 116.9% 124.3% 125.3% 127.1% 129.3% 132.1% 109.3%
Accumulated other comprehensive earnings 0.0% 0.0% -2.8% -3.7% -3.1% -5.4% -7.1% -8.9% -11.1% -14.0% -17.6% -2.5%
Cummulative foreign exchange translation adjustment 1.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
Postretirement benefirst reserves adjustment -4.2% -3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.2%
Unrealized gain/(loss) on cash flow hedges 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Treasury stock -71.3% -51.8% -53.4% -59.1% -61.4% -64.6% -70.9% -73.5% -76.7% -80.2% -84.1% -60.3%
ExxonMobel share of equity 47.4% 48.5% 46.6% 49.7% 50.2% 49.9% 50.0% 47.0% 43.8% 40.3% 36.2% 48.7%
Noncontrolling interests 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 1.9%
Total shareholders’ equity 49.5% 50.5% 48.6% 51.4% 52.0% 51.8% 52.1% 49.2% 46.1% 42.7% 38.7% 50.6%
Total Liabilities + Shareholders’ Equity 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Balance Sheet Items as a Percent of Revenue Avg 09-14
Cash 3.4% 2.0% 2.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% -20.1%
Cash – Restricted 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Notes and Accounts Receivable 8.9% 8.4% 7.9% 7.3% 7.6% 6.8% 6.4% 6.1% 5.8% 5.5% 5.2% 7.8%
Crude oil, products and merchandise 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.8% 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%
Materials and supplies 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9%
Other current assets 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2%
Accounts payable 13.3% 13.1% 11.7% 10.6% 11.0% 10.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.6%
Other assets 2.4% 2.3% 1.9% 1.6% 1.7% 2.1% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 2.0%
Deferred income taxes 7.5% 9.2% 7.5% 7.8% 9.2% 9.5% 8.5%
Notes payables 0.8% 0.7% 1.6% 0.8% 3.6% 4.2% 2.0%

Income Statement Items as a Percent of Balance Sheet
Depreciation and depletion / PP&E Gross 3.9% 3.9% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9%
Interest expense, net / Debt 7.7% 2.1% 2.6% 4.1% 0.1% 2.5% 1.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%

Growth of Income Statement Items 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FC2015 FC2016 FC2017 FC2018 FC2019 Avg 09-14 GeoAvg FC NOTES
Revenue 23.4% 26.9% -1.2% -8.8% -6.0% -32.5% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 6.9%
Crude oil and product purchases 29.5% 34.6% -1.1% -7.4% -7.4% -33.1% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 9.7%
Production and manufacturing expenses 8.4% 12.5% -4.3% 5.2% 0.8% -39.0% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 4.5%
Exploration expenses 6.1% -2.9% -11.6% 7.4% -15.5% -25.8% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% -3.3%
Sales-based taxes 10.1% 17.4% -3.3% -5.6% -4.1% -33.3% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 2.9%
Other taxes and duties 3.7% 10.7% -11.0% -6.5% -2.8% -30.3% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% -1.2%
Gross profit 33.4% 25.9% 4.6% -19.3% -6.8% -28.3% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 7.5%
SG&A -0.4% 2.0% -7.4% -7.2% -2.2% -30.3% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% -3.0%
EBITDA 43.9% 31.1% 6.6% -21.1% -7.6% -27.9% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 10.6%
Depreciation and depletion 23.9% 5.6% 2.0% 8.1% 0.7% 4.1% 2.3% 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 8.0%
EBIT 50.7% 38.1% 7.5% -27.0% -10.1% -38.6% 8.5% 6.9% 6.4% 4.5% 11.9%
Interest expense, net -52.7% -4.6% 32.4% -97.2% 3077.8% 38.2% 121.9% 18.3% 17.4% 19.0% 591.1%
EBT 52.3% 38.3% 7.5% -26.7% -10.5% -39.0% 7.1% 6.6% 6.1% 4.0% 12.2%
Income tax expense 42.6% 44.0% 0.0% -21.8% -25.8% -30.3% 7.1% 6.6% 6.1% 4.0% 7.8%
Net income including noncontrolling interests 59.7% 34.4% 13.0% -29.9% 0.5% -43.7% 7.1% 6.6% 6.1% 4.0% 15.6%
Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests 148.1% 22.2% 144.4% -69.0% 26.2% -22.5% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 54.4%
Net income attributable to ExxonMobile 58.0% 34.8% 9.3% -27.4% -0.2% -44.4% 7.1% 6.7% 6.1% 4.0% 14.9%

Growth of Balance Sheet Items 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FC2015 FC2016 FC2017 FC2018 FC2019 Avg 09-14 GeoAvg FC NOTES
Cash -26.8% 61.8% -24.3% -51.5% -0.6% -39.8% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% -8.3%
Cash – Restricted #DIV/0! -35.7% -15.6% -21.1% -84.4% 415.7% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% #DIV/0!
Marketable Securities -98.8% -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Notes and Accounts Receivable 16.8% 19.7% -9.5% -5.2% -15.5% -36.0% 0.7% -0.4% -0.7% -2.0% 1.3%
Inventory
Crude oil, products and merchandise 13.0% 18.4% -7.1% 11.8% 2.2% -41.6% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 7.7%
Materials and supplies 10.2% 7.5% 10.3% 8.4% 6.9% -45.1% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 8.7%
Other Current Assets 1.8% 18.2% -19.6% 2.0% -30.2% -10.6% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% -5.6%
Total current assets 6.8% 23.7% -11.7% -8.0% -10.8% -36.3% 3.3% 2.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.0%
Investments, advances and long-term receivalbes 11.6% -2.8% 1.1% 4.6% -3.0% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3%
PP&E, gross 22.2% 5.4% 3.9% 6.2% 2.8% 2.9% 2.3% 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 8.1%
Accumulated depreciation 4.6% 2.8% 1.7% 4.7% 1.7% 2.9% 2.3% 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 3.1%
PP&E, net 43.4% 7.6% 5.7% 7.4% 3.7% 2.9% 2.3% 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 13.6%
Other assets, including intangibles, net 18.2% 5.2% -15.7% -1.9% 15.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2%
Total Assets 29.7% 9.4% 0.8% 3.9% 0.8% -3.1% 2.4% 2.0% 1.6% 1.3% 8.9%

Accounts payable 21.2% 14.1% -11.1% -5.2% -12.2% -25.5% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 1.4%
Short-term note (Notes and loans payable) 12.6% 176.7% -52.6% 332.7% 10.5% -32.5% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 96.0%
Income Taxes Payable 18.1% 29.7% -23.3% -19.7% -36.9% -38.6% -5.7% -6.1% -6.5% -8.4% -6.4%
Total current liabilities 20.3% 23.7% -17.2% 11.8% -9.9% -28.4% 5.5% 4.5% 4.1% 2.8% 5.7%
Long-term debt 71.5% -23.8% -15.0% -13.1% 69.1% 217.5% 21.5% 19.1% 18.1% 19.5% 17.8%
Postretirement benefits reserves 7.9% 29.1% 1.1% -18.3% 25.0% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 9.0%
Long-term obligations to equity companies #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 96.6% 33.4% 12.3% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% #DIV/0!
Other long-term obligations 15.9% -1.9% 18.0% -8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8%
Deferred taxes (Deferred income tax liabilities) 51.8% 4.2% 2.6% 7.9% -3.2% -38.6% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 12.7%
Total liabilities 27.0% 13.7% -4.8% 2.6% 1.3% -3.6% 8.7% 8.1% 8.0% 8.4% 8.0%

Common Stock 70.3% 1.5% 1.5% 4.4% 7.1% 14.4% 14.4% 14.4% 14.4% 14.4% 17.0%
Retained earnings 7.9% 10.7% 10.5% 5.9% 5.4% 3.1% 3.3% 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 8.1%
Accumulated other comprehensive earnings #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 33.6% -12.0% 76.8% 27.6% 27.6% 27.6% 27.6% 27.6% #DIV/0!
Cummulative foreign exchange translation adjustment 13.8% -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Postretirement benefirst reserves adjustment 0.3% -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Unrealized gain/(loss) on cash flow hedges #DIV/0! -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Treasury stock -5.9% 13.0% 11.5% 7.8% 6.1% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5%
ExxonMobel share of equity 32.8% 5.1% 7.4% 4.9% 0.2% -2.9% -3.7% -4.9% -6.5% -9.1% 10.1%
Noncontrolling interests 21.1% 8.7% -8.7% 12.0% 2.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 7.2%
Total shareholders’ equity 32.3% 5.3% 6.8% 5.1% 0.3% -2.6% -3.3% -4.3% -5.8% -8.2% 10.0%
Total Liabilities + Shareholders’ Equity 29.7% 9.4% 0.8% 3.9% 0.8% -3.1% 2.4% 2.0% 1.6% 1.3% 8.9%

Useful Ratios & Other Figures 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FC2015 FC2016 FC2017 FC2018 FC2019 % chg Hist % chg FC NOTES
GM (Gross Margin) 20.0% 21.6% 21.4% 22.6% 20.0% 19.9% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 20.9% 0.0%
OM (Operating Margin) 15.2% 17.7% 18.3% 19.8% 17.1% 16.8% 17.9% 17.9% 17.9% 17.9% 17.9% 17.5% 0.0%
PM (Profit Margin AKA Net Profit Margin) 6.3% 8.2% 8.7% 9.9% 7.6% 8.2% 6.8% 6.9% 7.0% 7.0% 7.1% 8.2% 4.1%
TAT (Total Asset Turnover) 1.33 1.27 1.47 1.44 1.26 1.18 0.82 0.85 0.88 0.90 0.92 1.32 12.5%
EM (Equity Multiplier) 2.02 1.98 2.06 1.94 1.92 1.93 1.92 2.03 2.17 2.34 2.58 1.98 34.5%
ROE (Return on Equity) 16.7% 20.0% 25.5% 26.1% 18.1% 18.0% 10.2% 11.3% 12.6% 14.3% 16.2% 20.7% 57.8%
ROA (Return on Assets) 8.3% 10.1% 12.4% 13.4% 9.4% 9.3% 5.3% 5.6% 5.8% 6.1% 6.3% 10.5% 17.3%
d (Dividend Payout Ratio) 43.1% 28.8% 22.7% 23.2% 34.3% 36.3% 30.7% 30.6% 30.5% 30.4% 30.4% 31.4% -1.1%
b (Retention Ratio AKA Ploughback Ratio) 56.9% 71.2% 77.3% 76.8% 65.7% 63.7% 69.3% 69.4% 69.5% 69.6% 69.6% 68.6% 0.5%
SGR (Sustainable Growth Rate) 9.5% 14.2% 19.7% 20.1% 11.9% 11.4% 7.1% 7.9% 8.8% 9.9% 11.3% 14.5% 58.6%
IGR (Internal Growth Rate) 4.7% 7.2% 9.6% 10.3% 6.2% 5.9% 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 4.2% 4.4% 7.3% 17.9%
TIE (Times Interest Earned Ratio AKA Interest Coverage Ratio) 64.5 205.5 297.6 241.8 6,413.3 181.5 80.6 39.4 35.6 32.3 28.4 1,234.0 -64.8%
DOL (Degree of Operating Leverage) – point estimate 1.31 1.22 1.17 1.15 1.17 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.20 0.0%
EPS (Earnings Per Share) $3.99 $6.24 $7.24 $8.24 $9.24 $10.24 $11.24 $12.24 $13.24 $14.24 $15.24 $7.53 35.6%
Days of sales in cash 32.49 30.75 29.00 26.57 27.61 24.82 23.52 22.30 21.13 20.03 18.99 28.54 -19.3%
Inventory Turnover 24.51 27.31 25.15 22.85 20.12 16.71 23.59 23.47 23.42 23.28 23.99 39.3%
Receivables Turnover 12.79 13.72 13.06 12.86 13.47 12.11 16.43 17.24 18.15 19.03 13.18 57.2%
Purchases $301,983 $384,407 $371,381 $352,069 $330,671 $212,297 $233,691 $245,579 $257,139 $265,696 $348,102 25.2%
Payables Turnover 6.61 7.18 6.89 7.13 7.32 5.76 7.20 7.16 7.15 7.10 7.03 23.2%
Days in inventory 14.89 13.36 14.51 15.97 18.14 21.84 15.47 15.55 15.58 15.68 15.38 -28.2%
Days in receivables 28.54 26.61 27.95 28.37 27.10 30.14 22.22 21.17 20.10 19.18 27.72 -36.4%
Operating cycle 43.43 39.97 42.46 44.35 45.24 51.99 37.69 36.72 35.69 34.86 43.09 -32.9%
Days in payables 55.18 50.85 52.97 51.22 49.84 63.34 50.67 50.95 51.05 51.40 52.01 -18.8%
Cash cycle (11.75) (10.87) (10.51) (6.87) (4.61) (11.35) (12.97) (14.22) (15.37) (16.54) (8.92) 45.7%

ASSUMPTIONS FOR FORECASTS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FC2015 FC2016 FC2017 FC2018 FC2019 Avg 09-14 Avg 15-19
Sales growth rate 23.4% 26.9% -1.2% -8.8% -6.0% -32.50% 6.24% 5.13% 4.72% 3.38% 6.9% -2.6% ExxonMobile Outlook for Energy to 2040
Crude oil and product purchases 51.7% 54.8% 54.8% 55.7% 54.9% 54.4% 54.4% 54.4% 54.4% 54.4% 54.4%
Production and manufacturing expenses 9.3% 8.3% 8.0% 9.2% 9.9% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
Exploration expenses 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Sales-based taxes 7.4% 6.9% 6.7% 7.0% 7.1% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
Other taxes and duties 9.4% 8.2% 7.4% 7.6% 7.8% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1%
SG&A as % of sales 3.8% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%
Growth of depreciation and depletion 23.9% 5.6% 2.0% 8.1% 0.7% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
Interest as % of average debt 2.1% 1.5% 2.3% 0.1% 1.1% 1.4% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.4%
Average Income tax expense 43.5% 40.7% 42.4% 39.4% 42.0% 34.9% 39.9% 39.9% 39.9% 39.9% 39.9% 39.9%
Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Cash – Restricted 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Marketable Securities 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notes and Accounts Receivable 8.4% 7.9% 7.3% 7.6% 6.8% 6.4% 6.1% 5.8% 5.5% 5.2% 7.6% -5.2%
Crude oil, products and merchandise 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.8% 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%
Materials and supplies 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
Other current assets 1.4% 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
PP&E Growth Rate 43.4% 7.6% 5.7% 7.4% 3.7% 2.9% 2.3% 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 13.6% -21.2%
Other assets growth rate 18.2% 5.2% -15.7% -1.9% 15.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2%
Growth in Investments, advances and LT rec 11.6% -2.8% 1.1% 4.6% -3.0% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% geometric
Accounts payable 13.1% 11.7% 10.6% 11.0% 10.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3%
Short-term note 0.7% 1.6% 0.8% 3.6% 4.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
Income taxes payable as a percent of tax liability 55.0% 45.5% 41.0% 31.4% 32.3% 27.4% 24.1% 21.3% 18.7% 16.5% 14.5% 35.5% -11.9%
Long-term debt
Growth of postretirement benefits reserves 7.9% 29.1% 1.1% -18.3% 25.0% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1%
Long-term obligations to equity companies 96.6% 33.4% 12.3% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 47.4% -64.3%
Other long-term obligations 15.9% -1.9% 18.0% -8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8%
Deferred taxes as a percent of Revenue 9.2% 7.5% 7.8% 9.2% 9.5% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% geometric
Cash as a percent of revenue 2.0% 2.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.8%
Dividend payout ratio 28.8% 22.7% 23.2% 34.3% 36.3% 29.1% 29.1% 29.1% 29.1% 29.1% 29.1%
Additions to PPE as a percent of PPE -7.2% -7.9% -8.4% -7.7% -7.4% -7.7% -7.7% -7.7% -7.7% -7.7% -7.7%
Acquisition costs $-
Shares outstanding 4,180,000 finance.yahoo.com
Market Value of Debt 13,470,000 morningstar.com
Market Price of Stock $83.14 finance.yahoo.com

CASH FLOW COMPUTATIONS 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FC2015 FC2016 FC2017 FC2018 FC2019 Hist CAGR FC CAGR NOTES
Revenue $310,586 $383,221 $486,429 $480,681 $438,255 $411,939 $278,059 $295,422 $310,585 $325,258 $336,263 1.8% 4.9%
Operating Margin 15.2% 17.7% 18.3% 19.8% 17.1% 16.8% 17.9% 17.9% 17.9% 17.9% 17.9% -1.3% 0.0%
Operating Income 47,242 67,978 89,087 94,941 74,902 69,213 49,882 52,997 55,717 58,349 60,324 0.5% 4.9%
Tax Rate 43.5% 40.7% 42.4% 39.4% 42.0% 34.9% 39.9% 39.9% 39.9% 39.9% 39.9% -3.8% 0.0%
NOPAT = OpInc(1-t) [NOTE: Use OpInc instead of EBIT] 26,704 40,302 51,326 57,502 43,412 45,063 29,982 31,855 33,490 35,072 36,258 2.8% 4.9%
add Depr/Amort expense 11,917 14,760 15,583 15,888 17,182 17,297 18,013 18,427 18,760 19,027 19,241 4.0% 1.7%
OCF 38,621 55,062 66,909.2 73,389.7 60,593.5 62,359.9 47,995.8 50,281.6 52,249.8 54,099.2 55,499.3 3.2% 3.7%
subtract ΔGFA (22,491) (26,871) (30,975) (34,271) (33,669) (32,952) (35,446) (36,260) (36,916) (37,442) (37,862) 5.2% 1.7%
subtract Δnon-cash NOWC (1,159) 3,845 (1,012) 627 (4,720) (4,932) (14,981) 2,802 2,597 2,577 2,114 #NUM! #NUM!
FCFF 14,971 32,036 34,922 39,746 22,205 24,476 (2,432) 16,823 17,930 19,234 19,751 -6.5% #NUM! Free Cash Flow to the Firm
add Δdebt (153) (6,210) 1,957 (2,908) 11,604 6,966 25,700 8,325 8,925 10,038 12,711 #NUM! -16.1%
subtract Interest(1-t) (310) (154) (142) (198) (5) (186) (238) (527) (623) (732) (871) 4.9% 38.4%
subtract Preferred cash outflows – – – – – – – – – – – #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
FCFE 14,508 25,673 36,737 36,640 33,803 31,256 23,031 24,621 26,232 28,540 31,590 5.0% 8.2% Free Cash Flow to Equity

DCF Analysis – Equity Cash Flow Method: FCFE//Ke

Ke 7.55% Use Ke because valuing Free Cash Flow to Equity
Terminal Growth Rate 2.50%

Forecast Year -> 1 2 3 4 5 Terminal Value
FCFE -> 23,031 24,621 26,232 28,540 31,590 641,350
PV of future FCFE//Ke 21,414 21,286 21,087 21,332 21,955 445,726 discounted values
Sum of PV of FCFE//Ke 552,800
add cash from balance sheet 4,616 Rf 2.62% CNBC 7/23/2015
add MV of non-operating assets 43,915 β 1.01 Yahoo Finance 7/24/2015
Total Equity Intrinsic Value 601,331 Rm 7.50% Consensus
divide by shares outstanding 4,180 MRP 4.88%
Intrinsic Value per Share $143.86 Ke 7.55%

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Growth vs Cost of Equity
New Terminal Growth Rate
$143.86 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
Max 176.38 5.50% 168.55 185.49 207.28 236.33 277.00 338.01 439.68
Average 146.44 6.00% 152.45 165.76 182.38 203.76 232.27 272.18 332.04
Min 124.35 6.50% 139.29 149.97 163.03 179.35 200.33 228.30 267.46
Range 52.03 7.00% 128.33 137.06 147.55 160.36 176.38 196.97 224.42
7.55% 118.21 125.34 133.75 143.83 156.12 171.44 191.09
8.00% 111.12 117.22 124.35 132.76 142.86 155.21 170.64
8.50% 104.24 109.44 115.43 122.42 130.68 140.60 152.72
9.00% 98.23 102.69 107.79 113.67 120.54 128.65 138.38
9.50% 92.93 96.79 101.17 106.18 111.96 118.70 126.66

DCF Analysis – Corporate Valuation Method: FCFF//WACC

WACC 7.31% Use WACC because valuing Free Cash Flow to the Firm
Terminal Growth Rate 2.50%

Forecast Year -> 1 2 3 4 5 Terminal Value
FCFF -> (2,431.94) 16,822.88 17,930.34 19,234.02 19,750.82 420,774.25
PV of future FCFF//WACC (2,266.25) 14,608.64 14,509.50 14,504.03 13,879.01 295,680.34 discounted values
Value of operations, AKA enterprise value (Sum of PV of FCFF//WACC) 350,915 from Bal Sheet
add cash from balance sheet 4,616 Kpfd
add MV of non-operating assets 43,915 Wpfd 0.00%
Value of the Firm 355,531 Ke 7.55%
subtract MV of debt 13,470 We 96.27% 347,525,200
Total Equity Intrinsic Value 342,061 Kd 1.97%
divide by shares outstanding 4,180 Wd 3.73% 13,470,000
Intrinsic Value per Share $81.83 Tax shield (1-t) 60.1%
Total Capital 360,995,200.0
WACC 7.311%

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Growth vs WACC
New Terminal Growth Rate
$81.83 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00%
Max 97.98 5.50% 93.07 103.67 117.29 135.45 160.88 199.02 262.59
Average 80.70 6.00% 83.02 91.33 101.73 115.10 132.92 157.87 195.30
Min 65.47 6.50% 74.79 81.47 89.63 99.83 112.95 130.44 154.93
Range 32.52 7.00% 67.94 73.41 79.96 87.97 97.98 110.86 128.02
7.31% 64.25 69.11 74.88 81.86 90.45 101.30 115.43
8.00% 57.20 61.01 65.47 70.73 77.04 84.76 94.41
8.50% 52.90 56.15 59.90 64.27 69.43 75.63 83.21
9.00% 49.15 51.94 55.13 58.81 63.10 68.17 74.25
9.50% 45.84 48.26 51.00 54.13 57.74 61.95 66.93

DCF Analysis – Adjusted Present Value Method: FCFF//Ku

Ku 7.43%
Terminal Growth Rate 2.50%

Forecast Year -> 1 2 3 4 5 Terminal Value
FCFF -> (2,432) 16,823 17,930 19,234 19,751 410,846
PV of future FCFF//Ku (2,264) 14,577 14,462 14,441 13,804 287,145 discounted values
Unlevered value of operations (Sum of PV of FCFF//Ku) 342,166
Tax savings from interest (Int * t) 339 360 378 396 410 8,522
PV of future tax savings 315 312 305 298 286 5,956 discounted values
Value of tax shield (Sum of PV of tax savings) 7,472
Value of operations, AKA enterprise value (sum of PVs of FCFF & tax savings) 349,638 Rf 2.62%
add cash from balance sheet 4,616 β levered 1.01
add MV of non-operating assets 43,915 β unlevered 0.99
Value of the Firm 398,169 Rm 7.50%
subtract MV of debt 13,470 MRP 4.88%
Total Equity Intrinsic Value 384,699 CAPM 7.43%
divide by shares outstanding 4,180
Intrinsic Value per Share $92.03

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Growth vs Unlevered Cost of Capital
New Terminal Growth Rate
$92.03 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00%
Max 110.66 5.50% 105.64 116.46 130.36 148.90 174.86 213.79 278.68
Average 92.27 6.00% 95.38 103.87 114.48 128.12 146.32 171.78 209.99
Min 77.46 6.50% 86.98 93.80 102.13 112.55 125.94 143.79 168.78
Range 33.19 7.00% 79.99 85.57 92.26 100.44 110.66 123.80 141.32
7.43% 74.86 79.60 85.23 91.99 100.28 110.68 124.11
8.00% 69.02 72.92 77.46 82.83 89.28 97.16 107.01
8.50% 64.64 67.95 71.78 76.24 81.51 87.84 95.57
9.00% 60.81 63.65 66.91 70.66 75.04 80.22 86.43
9.50% 57.43 59.90 62.69 65.89 69.57 73.88 78.96

RELATIVE VALUATION

26.7 Comparable P/E http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pedata.html
601,331 Total Equity Intrinsic Value
$115.37 Per-share value implied by P/E

1.06 Comparable P/S http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/psdata.html
601,331 Total Equity Intrinsic Value
$70.51 Per-share value implied by P/S

5.90 Comparable EV/EBITDA http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/vebitda.html
294,304.8 Enterprise Value implied by EV/EBITDA
Cash
4,616 add cash from balance sheet
43,915 add MV of non-operating assets
342,836 Value of the Firm
13,470 subtract MV of debt
329,366 Total Equity Intrinsic Value
$78.80 Per-share value implied by EV/EBITDA

VALUATION SUMMARY
Recommendation: Buy Average valuation well above current market price
1-Year Target Price: $97.07 Average of valuations
% Upside/Downside: 16.8% Percent change from from 1-year Target to Market Price

Valuation Market Price
FCFE Valuation $143.86 $83.14
FCFF Valuation $81.83 $83.14 $105.91 Average of cash flow valuations
APV Valuation $92.03 $83.14 $97.07 Average of all six valuation methods
Value based on PE $115.37 $83.14
Value based on P/S $70.51 $83.14 $88.23 Average of comparable valuations
Value based on EV/EBITDA $78.80 $83.14

Exxon Mobil Corporation
Income Statement
For year ended 12/31/… Aquire major competitor
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FC2015 FC2016 FC2017 FC2018 FC2019 Hist CAGR FC CAGR NOTES
Revenue $         310,586 $         383,221 $         486,429 $         480,681 $         438,255 $           411,939 $         278,059 $         295,422 $         310,585 $         325,258 $             336,263 5.8% 4.9%
Crude oil and product purchases            152,806            197,959            266,534            263,535            244,156              225,972            151,176            160,617            168,860            176,838                    182,821 8.1% 4.9%
Production and manufacturing expenses              33,027              35,792              40,268              38,521              40,525                40,859              24,913              26,468              27,827              29,141                      30,127 4.3% 4.9%
Exploration expenses                2,021                2,144                2,081                1,840                1,976                  1,669                1,238                1,315                1,383                1,448                        1,497 -3.8% 4.9%
Sales-based taxes              25,936              28,547              33,503              32,409              30,589                29,342              19,565              20,787              21,854              22,886                      23,661 2.5% 4.9%
Other taxes and duties              34,819              36,118              39,973              35,558              33,230                32,286              22,500              23,905              25,132              26,320                      27,210 -1.5% 4.9%
Gross profit              61,977              82,661            104,070            108,818              87,779                81,811              58,666              62,330              65,529              68,624                      70,946 5.7% 4.9%
SG&A              14,735              14,683              14,983              13,877              12,877                12,598                8,784                9,332                9,811              10,275                      10,623 -3.1% 4.9%
EBITDA              47,242              67,978              89,087              94,941              74,902                69,213              49,882              52,997              55,717              58,349                      60,324 7.9% 4.9%
Depreciation and depletion              11,917              14,760              15,583              15,888              17,182                17,297              18,013              18,427              18,760              19,027                      19,241 7.7% 1.7%
EBIT              35,325              53,218              73,504              79,053              57,720                51,916              31,869              34,570              36,957              39,322                      41,083 8.0% 6.6%
Interest expense, net                    548                    259                    247                    327                          9                      286                    395                    877                1,037                1,218                        1,449 $                       279 38.2%
EBT              34,777              52,959              73,257              78,726              57,711                51,630              31,474              33,693              35,920              38,104                      39,634 8.2% 5.9%
Income tax expense              15,119              21,561              31,051              31,045              24,263                18,015              12,556              13,441              14,330              15,201                      15,811 3.6% 5.9%
Net income including noncontrolling interests              19,658              31,398              42,206              47,681              33,448                33,615              18,918              20,252              21,590              22,903                      23,822 11.3% 5.9%
Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests                    378                    938                1,146                2,801                    868                  1,095                    849                    902                    948                    993                        1,027 23.7% 4.9%
Net income attributable to ExxonMobile $         19,280 $         30,460 $         41,060 $         44,880 $         32,580 $           32,520 $         18,068 $         19,349 $         20,642 $         21,910 $                 22,796 11.0% 6.0%

 

Balance Sheet
As of 12/31/…
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FC2015 FC2016 FC2017 FC2018 FC2019 Hist CAGR FC CAGR NOTES
Cash $10,693 $7,825 $12,664 $9,582 $4,644 $4,616 $2,781 $2,954 $3,106 $3,253 $3,363 -15.5% 4.9% from statement of cash flows
Cash – Restricted – 628 404 341 269 42 217 230 242 253 262 -49.1% 4.9%
Marketable Securities 169 2 – – – – – – – – – -100.0% 0.0%
Notes and Accounts Receivable 27,645 32,284 38,642 34,987 33,152 28,009 17,920 18,046 17,982 17,849 17,490 0.3% -0.6%
Inventory
Crude oil, products and merchandise 8,718 9,852 11,665 10,836 12,117 12,384 7,226 7,678 8,072 8,453 8,739 7.3% 4.9%
Materials and supplies 2,835 3,124 3,359 3,706 4,018 4,294 2,356 2,503 2,631 2,756 2,849 8.7% 4.9%
Other Current Assets 5,175 5,269 6,229 5,008 5,108 3,565 3,186 3,385 3,558 3,726 3,852 -7.2% 4.9%
Total current assets 55,235 58,984 72,963 64,460 59,308 52,910 33,685 34,795 35,591 36,290 36,555 -0.9% 2.1%
Investments, advances and long-term receivables 31,665 35,338 34,333 34,718 36,328 35,239 36,001 36,779 37,574 38,387 39,216 2.2% 2.2%
PP&E, gross 305,906 373,938 393,995 409,314 434,517 446,789 459,814 470,371 478,877 485,698 491,147 7.9% 1.7%
Accumulated depreciation (166,790) (174,390) (179,331) (182,365) (190,867) (194,121) (199,780) (204,367) (208,063) (211,026) (213,394) 3.1% 1.7%
PP&E, net 139,116 199,548 214,664 226,949 243,650 252,668 260,034 266,004 270,815 274,672 277,753 12.7% 1.7%
Other assets, including intangibles, net 7,307 8,640 9,092 7,668 7,522 8,676 9,045 9,429 9,830 10,248 10,683 3.5% 4.2%
Total Assets $233,323 $302,510 $331,052 $333,795 $346,808 $349,493 $338,764 $347,007 $353,810 $359,596 $364,208 8.4% 1.8%

Accounts payable $41,275 $50,034 $57,067 $50,728 $48,085 $42,227 $31,456 $33,421 $35,136 $36,796 $38,041 0.5% 4.9%
Short-term note (Notes and loans payable) 2,476 2,787 7,711 3,653 15,808 17,468 11,791 12,527 13,170 13,792 14,259 47.8% 4.9%
Income Taxes Payable 8,310 9,812 12,727 9,758 7,831 4,938 3,032 2,859 2,685 2,510 2,300 -9.9% -6.7%
Total current liabilities 52,061 62,633 77,505 64,139 71,724 64,633 46,279 48,807 50,991 53,098 54,599 4.4% 4.2%
Long-term debt 7,129 12,227 9,322 7,928 6,891 11,653 37,001 44,973 53,546 63,231 75,589 10.3% 19.6%
Postretirement benefits reserves 17,942 19,367 24,994 25,267 20,646 25,802 27,632 29,591 31,689 33,937 36,343 7.5% 7.1%
Long-term obligations to equity companies – – 1,808 3,555 4,742 5,325 5,559 5,645 5,677 5,688 5,692 43.3% 0.6%
Other long-term obligations 17,651 20,454 20,061 23,676 21,780 21,786 21,792 21,798 21,804 21,810 21,816 4.3% 0.0%
Deferred taxes (Deferred income tax liabilities) 23,148 35,150 36,618 37,570 40,530 39,230 24,073 25,576 26,889 28,159 29,112 11.1% 4.9%
Total liabilities 117,931 149,831 170,308 162,135 166,313 168,429 162,335 176,391 190,596 205,923 223,152 7.4% 8.3%

Common Stock 5,503 9,371 9,512 9,653 10,077 10,792 12,348 14,129 16,166 18,497 21,164 14.4% 14.4%
Retained earnings 276,937 298,899 330,939 365,727 387,432 408,384 421,198 434,921 449,560 465,099 481,265 8.1% 3.4% 20,952
Accumulated other comprehensive earnings – – (9,123) (12,184) (10,725) (18,957) (24,191) (30,869) (39,391) (50,267) (64,144) 27.6% 27.6%
Cummulative foreign exchange translation adjustment 4,402 5,011 – – – – – – – – – -100.0% 0.0%
Postretirement benefirst reserves adjustment (9,863) (9,889) – – – – – – – – – -100.0% 0.0%
Unrealized gain/(loss) on cash flow hedges – 55 – – – – – – – – – 0.0% 0.0%
Treasury stock (166,410) (156,608) (176,932) (197,333) (212,781) (225,820) (240,037) (255,150) (271,214) (288,289) (306,440) 6.3% 6.3%
ExxonMobel share of equity 110,569 146,839 154,396 165,863 174,003 174,399 169,318 163,031 155,121 145,040 131,846 9.5% -6.1%
Noncontrolling interests 4,823 5,840 6,348 5,797 6,492 6,665 7,110 7,586 8,093 8,633 9,210 6.7% 6.7%
Total shareholders’ equity 115,392 152,679 160,744 171,660 180,495 181,064 176,429 170,616 163,213 153,673 141,056 9.4% -5.4%
Total Liabilities + Shareholders’ Equity $233,323 $302,510 $331,052 $333,795 $346,808 $349,493 $338,764 $347,007 $353,810 $359,596 $364,208 8.4% 1.8%
check for imbalance – – – – – – – – – – –

Exxon Mobil Corporation
Statement of Cash Flows
For year ended 12/31/…
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FC2015 FC2016 FC2017 FC2018 FC2019 Hist CAGR FC CAGR NOTES
Cash flows from operating activities
Net income including controlling interests $19,658 $31,398 $42,206 $47,681 $33,448 $33,615 $18,918 $20,252 $21,590 $22,903 $23,822 11.3% 5.9% revenue – increase in receivables
Depreciartion and depletion 11,917 14,760 15,583 15,888 17,182 17,297 18,013 18,427 18,760 19,027 19,241 7.7% 1.7%
Deferred income tax charges – (1,135) 142 3,142 754 1,540 741 741 741 741 741 $741 0.0% COGS + increase in inventory – increase in payables
Postretirement benefits expense in excess of net payments (1,722) 1,700 544 (315) 2,291 524 504 504 504 504 504 $504 0.0% SG&A – depreciation – increase in accruals
Other long-term obligation provisions 731 160 (151) 1,643 (2,566) 1,404 204 204 204 204 204 $204 0.0% Interest expense adjusted for interest payable
Dividends received greater than equity in earnings of equity companies (483) (596) (273) (1,157) 3 (358) (477) (477) (477) (477) (477) $(477) 0.0% Income tax expense adjusted for deferred tax liability
Changes in working capital, excluding cash and debt
Notes and accounts recievable (-) (3,170) (5,863) (7,906) (1,082) (305) 3,118 10,089 (126) 64 133 359 -199.7% -56.6%
Inventories (-) 459 (1,148) (2,208) (1,873) (1,812) (1,343) (7,096) 598 523 506 379 -224.0% #NUM!
Other current assets (-) 132 913 222 (42) (105) (68) 379 (199) (174) (168) (126) -187.6% #NUM! starting line
Accounts and other payables (+) 1,420 9,943 8,880 3,624 (2,498) (6,639) (18,354) 2,528 2,184 2,106 1,502 -236.1% #NUM!
Net (gain) on asset sales (488) (1,401) (2,842) (13,018) (1,828) (3,151) (3,788) (3,788) (3,788) (3,788) (3,788) $(3,788) 0.0% non-cash, add back
All other items – net (16) (318) 1,148 1,679 350 (823) 337 337 337 337 337 $337 0.0% non-cash, add back
Net cash provided (used) by operating activities $28,438 $48,413 $55,345 $56,170 $44,914 $45,116 $19,469 $38,999 $40,466 $42,026 $42,696 9.7% 21.7% non-operating, subtract if gain

Cash flows from investing activities
Additions to PP&E (22,491) (26,871) (30,975) (34,271) (33,669) (32,952) (35,446) (36,260) (36,916) (37,442) (37,862) 7.9%
Proceeds associated with sales of subs, PP&E etc 1,545 3,261 11,133 7,655 2,707 4,035 5,056 5,056 5,056 5,056 5,056 $5,056
Decrease/increase in restricted cash – (628) 224 63 72 227 (175) (14) (12) (11) (9) $(7)
Additional investments and advances (2,752) (1,239) (3,586) (598) (4,435) (1,631) (2,374) (2,374) (2,374) (2,374) (2,374) $(2,374)
Collection of advances 724 1,133 1,119 1,550 1,124 3,346 1,499 1,499 1,499 1,499 1,499 $1,499
Additions to marketable securities (16) (15) (1,754) – – – – – – – – -100.0%
Sales of marketable securities 571 155 1,674 – – – – – – – – -100.0%
Net cash provided (used) by investing activities $(22,419) $(24,204) $(22,165) $(25,601) $(34,201) $(26,975) $(31,439) $(32,092) $(32,746) $(33,272) $(33,689) 3.8%

Cash flows from financing activities
Additions to long-term debt 225 1,143 702 995 345 5,731 25,348 7,972 8,572 9,685 12,358 $1,524
Reductions in long-term debt (68) (6,224) (266) (147) (13) (69) (1,131) (1,131) (1,131) (1,131) (1,131) $(1,131)
Additions to short-term debt 1,336 598 1,063 958 16 – 662 662 662 662 662 $662
Reductions in short-term debt (1,575) (2,436) (1,103) (4,488) (756) (745) (1,851) (1,851) (1,851) (1,851) (1,851) $(1,851)
Additions/(reductions) in debt with three months or less maturity (71) 709 1,561 (226) 12,012 2,049 2,672 2,672 2,672 2,672 2,672 $2,672
Cash dividends to ExxonMobil shareholders (8,023) (8,498) (9,020) (10,092) (10,875) (11,568) (5,254) (5,627) (6,002) (6,371) (6,629) 7.6%
Cash dividends to noncontrolling interests (280) (281) (306) (327) (304) (248) (291) (291) (291) (291) (291) $(291)
Changes in noncontrolling interests (113) (7) (16) 204 (1) – – – – – – $10
Tax benefits related to stock-based awards 237 122 260 130 48 115 152 152 152 152 152 $152
Common stock acquired (19,703) (13,093) (22,055) (21,068) (15,998) (13,183) (14,217) (15,113) (16,064) (17,075) (18,150) $(17,517)
Common stock sold 752 1,043 924 193 50 30 499 499 499 499 499 $499
Net cash used in financing activities $(27,283) $(26,924) $(28,256) $(33,868) $(15,476) $(17,888) $6,588 $(12,055) $(12,782) $(13,049) $(11,709) -8.1%

Effect of exchange rate chanes on cash 520 (153) (85) 217 (175) (281) 7 7 7 7 7 $7
Increase/(decrease) in cash equivalents (20,744) (2,868) 4,839 (3,082) (4,938) (28) (5,382) (5,148) (5,062) (4,294) (2,702) -73.3%
Cash and equivalents at beginning of year 31,437 10,693 7,825 12,664 9,582 4,644 4,616 2,781 2,954 3,106 3,253 -31.8%
Cash and equivalents at end of year $10,693 $7,825 $12,664 $9,582 $4,644 $4,616 2,781 2,954 3,106 3,253 3,363 -15.5%

Cash, end of year feeds the balance sheet cash figure

Noncash investing and financing activities
Issuance of common stock for PP&E $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

Common-size Income Statement 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FC2015 FC2016 FC2017 FC2018 FC2019 Avg 09-14 NOTES
Revenue 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Crude oil and product purchases 49.2% 51.7% 54.8% 54.8% 55.7% 54.9% 54.4% 54.4% 54.4% 54.4% 54.4% 53.5%
Production and manufacturing expenses 10.6% 9.3% 8.3% 8.0% 9.2% 9.9% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.2%
Exploration expenses 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
Sales-based taxes 8.4% 7.4% 6.9% 6.7% 7.0% 7.1% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.3%
Other taxes and duties 11.2% 9.4% 8.2% 7.4% 7.6% 7.8% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.6%
COGS 80.0% 78.4% 78.6% 77.4% 80.0% 80.1% 78.9% 78.9% 78.9% 78.9% 78.9% 79.1%
Gross profit 20.0% 21.6% 21.4% 22.6% 20.0% 19.9% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 20.9%
SG&A 4.7% 3.8% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.4%
Operating income (EBITDA) 15.2% 17.7% 18.3% 19.8% 17.1% 16.8% 17.9% 17.9% 17.9% 17.9% 17.9% 17.5%
Depreciation and depletion 3.8% 3.9% 3.2% 3.3% 3.9% 4.2% 6.5% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 5.7% 3.7%
Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) 11.4% 13.9% 15.1% 16.4% 13.2% 12.6% 11.5% 11.7% 11.9% 12.1% 12.2% 13.8%
Interest expense, net 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Earnings before taxes 11.2% 13.8% 15.1% 16.4% 13.2% 12.5% 11.3% 11.4% 11.6% 11.7% 11.8% 13.7%
Income tax expense 4.9% 5.6% 6.4% 6.5% 5.5% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 5.5%
Net income 6.3% 8.2% 8.7% 9.9% 7.6% 8.2% 6.8% 6.9% 7.0% 7.0% 7.1% 8.2%

Common-size Balance Sheet 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FC2015 FC2016 FC2017 FC2018 FC2019 Avg 09-14 NOTES
Cash 4.6% 2.6% 3.8% 2.9% 1.3% 1.3% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 2.8% -22.0%
Cash – Restricted 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Marketable Securities 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notes and Accounts Receivable 11.8% 10.7% 11.7% 10.5% 9.6% 8.0% 5.3% 5.2% 5.1% 5.0% 4.8% 10.4%
Inventory 5.0% 4.3% 4.5% 4.4% 4.7% 4.8% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% 4.6%
Crude oil, products and merchandise 3.7% 3.3% 3.5% 3.2% 3.5% 3.5% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 3.5%
Materials and supplies 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 1.1%
Other Current Assets 2.2% 1.7% 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.6%
Total current assets 23.7% 19.5% 22.0% 19.3% 17.1% 15.1% 9.9% 10.0% 10.1% 10.1% 10.0% 19.5%
Investments, advances and long-term receivalbes 13.6% 11.7% 10.4% 10.4% 10.5% 10.1% 10.6% 10.6% 10.6% 10.7% 10.8% 11.1%
PP&E, gross 131.1% 123.6% 119.0% 122.6% 125.3% 127.8% 135.7% 135.6% 135.3% 135.1% 134.9% 124.9%
Accumulated depreciation -71.5% -57.6% -54.2% -54.6% -55.0% -55.5% -59.0% -58.9% -58.8% -58.7% -58.6% -58.1%
PP&E, net 59.6% 66.0% 64.8% 68.0% 70.3% 72.3% 76.8% 76.7% 76.5% 76.4% 76.3% 66.8%
Other assets, including intangibles, net 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.3% 2.2% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.6%
Total Assets 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Accounts payable 17.7% 16.5% 17.2% 15.2% 13.9% 12.1% 9.3% 9.6% 9.9% 10.2% 10.4% 15.4%
Short-term note (Notes and loans payable) 1.1% 0.9% 2.3% 1.1% 4.6% 5.0% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 2.5%
Income Taxes Payable 3.6% 3.2% 3.8% 2.9% 2.3% 1.4% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 2.9%
Total current liabilities 22.3% 20.7% 23.4% 19.2% 20.7% 18.5% 13.7% 14.1% 14.4% 14.8% 15.0% 20.8%
Long-term debt 3.1% 4.0% 2.8% 2.4% 2.0% 3.3% 10.9% 13.0% 15.1% 17.6% 20.8% 2.9%
Postretirement benefits reserves 7.7% 6.4% 7.5% 7.6% 6.0% 7.4% 8.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.4% 10.0% 7.1%
Long-term obligations to equity companies 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 0.8%
Other long-term obligations 7.6% 6.8% 6.1% 7.1% 6.3% 6.2% 6.4% 6.3% 6.2% 6.1% 6.0% 6.7%
Deferred taxes (Deferred income tax liabilities) 9.9% 11.6% 11.1% 11.3% 11.7% 11.2% 7.1% 7.4% 7.6% 7.8% 8.0% 11.1%
Total liabilities 50.5% 49.5% 51.4% 48.6% 48.0% 48.2% 47.9% 50.8% 53.9% 57.3% 61.3% 49.4%

Common Stock 2.4% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 3.6% 4.1% 4.6% 5.1% 5.8% 2.9%
Retained earnings 118.7% 98.8% 100.0% 109.6% 111.7% 116.9% 124.3% 125.3% 127.1% 129.3% 132.1% 109.3%
Accumulated other comprehensive earnings 0.0% 0.0% -2.8% -3.7% -3.1% -5.4% -7.1% -8.9% -11.1% -14.0% -17.6% -2.5%
Cummulative foreign exchange translation adjustment 1.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
Postretirement benefirst reserves adjustment -4.2% -3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.2%
Unrealized gain/(loss) on cash flow hedges 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Treasury stock -71.3% -51.8% -53.4% -59.1% -61.4% -64.6% -70.9% -73.5% -76.7% -80.2% -84.1% -60.3%
ExxonMobel share of equity 47.4% 48.5% 46.6% 49.7% 50.2% 49.9% 50.0% 47.0% 43.8% 40.3% 36.2% 48.7%
Noncontrolling interests 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 1.9%
Total shareholders’ equity 49.5% 50.5% 48.6% 51.4% 52.0% 51.8% 52.1% 49.2% 46.1% 42.7% 38.7% 50.6%
Total Liabilities + Shareholders’ Equity 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Balance Sheet Items as a Percent of Revenue Avg 09-14
Cash 3.4% 2.0% 2.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% -20.1%
Cash – Restricted 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Notes and Accounts Receivable 8.9% 8.4% 7.9% 7.3% 7.6% 6.8% 6.4% 6.1% 5.8% 5.5% 5.2% 7.8%
Crude oil, products and merchandise 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.8% 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%
Materials and supplies 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9%
Other current assets 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2%
Accounts payable 13.3% 13.1% 11.7% 10.6% 11.0% 10.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.6%
Other assets 2.4% 2.3% 1.9% 1.6% 1.7% 2.1% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 2.0%
Deferred income taxes 7.5% 9.2% 7.5% 7.8% 9.2% 9.5% 8.5%
Notes payables 0.8% 0.7% 1.6% 0.8% 3.6% 4.2% 2.0%

Income Statement Items as a Percent of Balance Sheet
Depreciation and depletion / PP&E Gross 3.9% 3.9% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9%
Interest expense, net / Debt 7.7% 2.1% 2.6% 4.1% 0.1% 2.5% 1.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%

Growth of Income Statement Items 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FC2015 FC2016 FC2017 FC2018 FC2019 Avg 09-14 GeoAvg FC NOTES
Revenue 23.4% 26.9% -1.2% -8.8% -6.0% -32.5% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 6.9%
Crude oil and product purchases 29.5% 34.6% -1.1% -7.4% -7.4% -33.1% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 9.7%
Production and manufacturing expenses 8.4% 12.5% -4.3% 5.2% 0.8% -39.0% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 4.5%
Exploration expenses 6.1% -2.9% -11.6% 7.4% -15.5% -25.8% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% -3.3%
Sales-based taxes 10.1% 17.4% -3.3% -5.6% -4.1% -33.3% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 2.9%
Other taxes and duties 3.7% 10.7% -11.0% -6.5% -2.8% -30.3% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% -1.2%
Gross profit 33.4% 25.9% 4.6% -19.3% -6.8% -28.3% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 7.5%
SG&A -0.4% 2.0% -7.4% -7.2% -2.2% -30.3% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% -3.0%
EBITDA 43.9% 31.1% 6.6% -21.1% -7.6% -27.9% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 10.6%
Depreciation and depletion 23.9% 5.6% 2.0% 8.1% 0.7% 4.1% 2.3% 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 8.0%
EBIT 50.7% 38.1% 7.5% -27.0% -10.1% -38.6% 8.5% 6.9% 6.4% 4.5% 11.9%
Interest expense, net -52.7% -4.6% 32.4% -97.2% 3077.8% 38.2% 121.9% 18.3% 17.4% 19.0% 591.1%
EBT 52.3% 38.3% 7.5% -26.7% -10.5% -39.0% 7.1% 6.6% 6.1% 4.0% 12.2%
Income tax expense 42.6% 44.0% 0.0% -21.8% -25.8% -30.3% 7.1% 6.6% 6.1% 4.0% 7.8%
Net income including noncontrolling interests 59.7% 34.4% 13.0% -29.9% 0.5% -43.7% 7.1% 6.6% 6.1% 4.0% 15.6%
Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests 148.1% 22.2% 144.4% -69.0% 26.2% -22.5% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 54.4%
Net income attributable to ExxonMobile 58.0% 34.8% 9.3% -27.4% -0.2% -44.4% 7.1% 6.7% 6.1% 4.0% 14.9%

Growth of Balance Sheet Items 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FC2015 FC2016 FC2017 FC2018 FC2019 Avg 09-14 GeoAvg FC NOTES
Cash -26.8% 61.8% -24.3% -51.5% -0.6% -39.8% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% -8.3%
Cash – Restricted #DIV/0! -35.7% -15.6% -21.1% -84.4% 415.7% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% #DIV/0!
Marketable Securities -98.8% -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Notes and Accounts Receivable 16.8% 19.7% -9.5% -5.2% -15.5% -36.0% 0.7% -0.4% -0.7% -2.0% 1.3%
Inventory
Crude oil, products and merchandise 13.0% 18.4% -7.1% 11.8% 2.2% -41.6% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 7.7%
Materials and supplies 10.2% 7.5% 10.3% 8.4% 6.9% -45.1% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 8.7%
Other Current Assets 1.8% 18.2% -19.6% 2.0% -30.2% -10.6% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% -5.6%
Total current assets 6.8% 23.7% -11.7% -8.0% -10.8% -36.3% 3.3% 2.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.0%
Investments, advances and long-term receivalbes 11.6% -2.8% 1.1% 4.6% -3.0% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3%
PP&E, gross 22.2% 5.4% 3.9% 6.2% 2.8% 2.9% 2.3% 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 8.1%
Accumulated depreciation 4.6% 2.8% 1.7% 4.7% 1.7% 2.9% 2.3% 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 3.1%
PP&E, net 43.4% 7.6% 5.7% 7.4% 3.7% 2.9% 2.3% 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 13.6%
Other assets, including intangibles, net 18.2% 5.2% -15.7% -1.9% 15.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2%
Total Assets 29.7% 9.4% 0.8% 3.9% 0.8% -3.1% 2.4% 2.0% 1.6% 1.3% 8.9%

Accounts payable 21.2% 14.1% -11.1% -5.2% -12.2% -25.5% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 1.4%
Short-term note (Notes and loans payable) 12.6% 176.7% -52.6% 332.7% 10.5% -32.5% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 96.0%
Income Taxes Payable 18.1% 29.7% -23.3% -19.7% -36.9% -38.6% -5.7% -6.1% -6.5% -8.4% -6.4%
Total current liabilities 20.3% 23.7% -17.2% 11.8% -9.9% -28.4% 5.5% 4.5% 4.1% 2.8% 5.7%
Long-term debt 71.5% -23.8% -15.0% -13.1% 69.1% 217.5% 21.5% 19.1% 18.1% 19.5% 17.8%
Postretirement benefits reserves 7.9% 29.1% 1.1% -18.3% 25.0% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 9.0%
Long-term obligations to equity companies #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 96.6% 33.4% 12.3% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% #DIV/0!
Other long-term obligations 15.9% -1.9% 18.0% -8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8%
Deferred taxes (Deferred income tax liabilities) 51.8% 4.2% 2.6% 7.9% -3.2% -38.6% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 12.7%
Total liabilities 27.0% 13.7% -4.8% 2.6% 1.3% -3.6% 8.7% 8.1% 8.0% 8.4% 8.0%

Common Stock 70.3% 1.5% 1.5% 4.4% 7.1% 14.4% 14.4% 14.4% 14.4% 14.4% 17.0%
Retained earnings 7.9% 10.7% 10.5% 5.9% 5.4% 3.1% 3.3% 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 8.1%
Accumulated other comprehensive earnings #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 33.6% -12.0% 76.8% 27.6% 27.6% 27.6% 27.6% 27.6% #DIV/0!
Cummulative foreign exchange translation adjustment 13.8% -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Postretirement benefirst reserves adjustment 0.3% -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Unrealized gain/(loss) on cash flow hedges #DIV/0! -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Treasury stock -5.9% 13.0% 11.5% 7.8% 6.1% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.5%
ExxonMobel share of equity 32.8% 5.1% 7.4% 4.9% 0.2% -2.9% -3.7% -4.9% -6.5% -9.1% 10.1%
Noncontrolling interests 21.1% 8.7% -8.7% 12.0% 2.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 7.2%
Total shareholders’ equity 32.3% 5.3% 6.8% 5.1% 0.3% -2.6% -3.3% -4.3% -5.8% -8.2% 10.0%
Total Liabilities + Shareholders’ Equity 29.7% 9.4% 0.8% 3.9% 0.8% -3.1% 2.4% 2.0% 1.6% 1.3% 8.9%

Useful Ratios & Other Figures 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FC2015 FC2016 FC2017 FC2018 FC2019 % chg Hist % chg FC NOTES
GM (Gross Margin) 20.0% 21.6% 21.4% 22.6% 20.0% 19.9% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 20.9% 0.0%
OM (Operating Margin) 15.2% 17.7% 18.3% 19.8% 17.1% 16.8% 17.9% 17.9% 17.9% 17.9% 17.9% 17.5% 0.0%
PM (Profit Margin AKA Net Profit Margin) 6.3% 8.2% 8.7% 9.9% 7.6% 8.2% 6.8% 6.9% 7.0% 7.0% 7.1% 8.2% 4.1%
TAT (Total Asset Turnover) 1.33 1.27 1.47 1.44 1.26 1.18 0.82 0.85 0.88 0.90 0.92 1.32 12.5%
EM (Equity Multiplier) 2.02 1.98 2.06 1.94 1.92 1.93 1.92 2.03 2.17 2.34 2.58 1.98 34.5%
ROE (Return on Equity) 16.7% 20.0% 25.5% 26.1% 18.1% 18.0% 10.2% 11.3% 12.6% 14.3% 16.2% 20.7% 57.8%
ROA (Return on Assets) 8.3% 10.1% 12.4% 13.4% 9.4% 9.3% 5.3% 5.6% 5.8% 6.1% 6.3% 10.5% 17.3%
d (Dividend Payout Ratio) 43.1% 28.8% 22.7% 23.2% 34.3% 36.3% 30.7% 30.6% 30.5% 30.4% 30.4% 31.4% -1.1%
b (Retention Ratio AKA Ploughback Ratio) 56.9% 71.2% 77.3% 76.8% 65.7% 63.7% 69.3% 69.4% 69.5% 69.6% 69.6% 68.6% 0.5%
SGR (Sustainable Growth Rate) 9.5% 14.2% 19.7% 20.1% 11.9% 11.4% 7.1% 7.9% 8.8% 9.9% 11.3% 14.5% 58.6%
IGR (Internal Growth Rate) 4.7% 7.2% 9.6% 10.3% 6.2% 5.9% 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 4.2% 4.4% 7.3% 17.9%
TIE (Times Interest Earned Ratio AKA Interest Coverage Ratio) 64.5 205.5 297.6 241.8 6,413.3 181.5 80.6 39.4 35.6 32.3 28.4 1,234.0 -64.8%
DOL (Degree of Operating Leverage) – point estimate 1.31 1.22 1.17 1.15 1.17 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.20 0.0%
EPS (Earnings Per Share) $3.99 $6.24 $7.24 $8.24 $9.24 $10.24 $11.24 $12.24 $13.24 $14.24 $15.24 $7.53 35.6%
Days of sales in cash 32.49 30.75 29.00 26.57 27.61 24.82 23.52 22.30 21.13 20.03 18.99 28.54 -19.3%
Inventory Turnover 24.51 27.31 25.15 22.85 20.12 16.71 23.59 23.47 23.42 23.28 23.99 39.3%
Receivables Turnover 12.79 13.72 13.06 12.86 13.47 12.11 16.43 17.24 18.15 19.03 13.18 57.2%
Purchases $301,983 $384,407 $371,381 $352,069 $330,671 $212,297 $233,691 $245,579 $257,139 $265,696 $348,102 25.2%
Payables Turnover 6.61 7.18 6.89 7.13 7.32 5.76 7.20 7.16 7.15 7.10 7.03 23.2%
Days in inventory 14.89 13.36 14.51 15.97 18.14 21.84 15.47 15.55 15.58 15.68 15.38 -28.2%
Days in receivables 28.54 26.61 27.95 28.37 27.10 30.14 22.22 21.17 20.10 19.18 27.72 -36.4%
Operating cycle 43.43 39.97 42.46 44.35 45.24 51.99 37.69 36.72 35.69 34.86 43.09 -32.9%
Days in payables 55.18 50.85 52.97 51.22 49.84 63.34 50.67 50.95 51.05 51.40 52.01 -18.8%
Cash cycle (11.75) (10.87) (10.51) (6.87) (4.61) (11.35) (12.97) (14.22) (15.37) (16.54) (8.92) 45.7%

ASSUMPTIONS FOR FORECASTS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FC2015 FC2016 FC2017 FC2018 FC2019 Avg 09-14 Avg 15-19
Sales growth rate 23.4% 26.9% -1.2% -8.8% -6.0% -32.50% 6.24% 5.13% 4.72% 3.38% 6.9% -2.6% ExxonMobile Outlook for Energy to 2040
Crude oil and product purchases 51.7% 54.8% 54.8% 55.7% 54.9% 54.4% 54.4% 54.4% 54.4% 54.4% 54.4%
Production and manufacturing expenses 9.3% 8.3% 8.0% 9.2% 9.9% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
Exploration expenses 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Sales-based taxes 7.4% 6.9% 6.7% 7.0% 7.1% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
Other taxes and duties 9.4% 8.2% 7.4% 7.6% 7.8% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1%
SG&A as % of sales 3.8% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%
Growth of depreciation and depletion 23.9% 5.6% 2.0% 8.1% 0.7% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
Interest as % of average debt 2.1% 1.5% 2.3% 0.1% 1.1% 1.4% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.4%
Average Income tax expense 43.5% 40.7% 42.4% 39.4% 42.0% 34.9% 39.9% 39.9% 39.9% 39.9% 39.9% 39.9%
Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Cash – Restricted 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Marketable Securities 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notes and Accounts Receivable 8.4% 7.9% 7.3% 7.6% 6.8% 6.4% 6.1% 5.8% 5.5% 5.2% 7.6% -5.2%
Crude oil, products and merchandise 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.8% 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%
Materials and supplies 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
Other current assets 1.4% 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
PP&E Growth Rate 43.4% 7.6% 5.7% 7.4% 3.7% 2.9% 2.3% 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 13.6% -21.2%
Other assets growth rate 18.2% 5.2% -15.7% -1.9% 15.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2%
Growth in Investments, advances and LT rec 11.6% -2.8% 1.1% 4.6% -3.0% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% geometric
Accounts payable 13.1% 11.7% 10.6% 11.0% 10.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3%
Short-term note 0.7% 1.6% 0.8% 3.6% 4.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
Income taxes payable as a percent of tax liability 55.0% 45.5% 41.0% 31.4% 32.3% 27.4% 24.1% 21.3% 18.7% 16.5% 14.5% 35.5% -11.9%
Long-term debt
Growth of postretirement benefits reserves 7.9% 29.1% 1.1% -18.3% 25.0% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1%
Long-term obligations to equity companies 96.6% 33.4% 12.3% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 47.4% -64.3%
Other long-term obligations 15.9% -1.9% 18.0% -8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8%
Deferred taxes as a percent of Revenue 9.2% 7.5% 7.8% 9.2% 9.5% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% geometric
Cash as a percent of revenue 2.0% 2.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.8%
Dividend payout ratio 28.8% 22.7% 23.2% 34.3% 36.3% 29.1% 29.1% 29.1% 29.1% 29.1% 29.1%
Additions to PPE as a percent of PPE -7.2% -7.9% -8.4% -7.7% -7.4% -7.7% -7.7% -7.7% -7.7% -7.7% -7.7%
Acquisition costs $-
Shares outstanding 4,180,000 finance.yahoo.com
Market Value of Debt 13,470,000 morningstar.com
Market Price of Stock $83.14 finance.yahoo.com

CASH FLOW COMPUTATIONS 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FC2015 FC2016 FC2017 FC2018 FC2019 Hist CAGR FC CAGR NOTES
Revenue $310,586 $383,221 $486,429 $480,681 $438,255 $411,939 $278,059 $295,422 $310,585 $325,258 $336,263 1.8% 4.9%
Operating Margin 15.2% 17.7% 18.3% 19.8% 17.1% 16.8% 17.9% 17.9% 17.9% 17.9% 17.9% -1.3% 0.0%
Operating Income 47,242 67,978 89,087 94,941 74,902 69,213 49,882 52,997 55,717 58,349 60,324 0.5% 4.9%
Tax Rate 43.5% 40.7% 42.4% 39.4% 42.0% 34.9% 39.9% 39.9% 39.9% 39.9% 39.9% -3.8% 0.0%
NOPAT = OpInc(1-t) [NOTE: Use OpInc instead of EBIT] 26,704 40,302 51,326 57,502 43,412 45,063 29,982 31,855 33,490 35,072 36,258 2.8% 4.9%
add Depr/Amort expense 11,917 14,760 15,583 15,888 17,182 17,297 18,013 18,427 18,760 19,027 19,241 4.0% 1.7%
OCF 38,621 55,062 66,909.2 73,389.7 60,593.5 62,359.9 47,995.8 50,281.6 52,249.8 54,099.2 55,499.3 3.2% 3.7%
subtract ΔGFA (22,491) (26,871) (30,975) (34,271) (33,669) (32,952) (35,446) (36,260) (36,916) (37,442) (37,862) 5.2% 1.7%
subtract Δnon-cash NOWC (1,159) 3,845 (1,012) 627 (4,720) (4,932) (14,981) 2,802 2,597 2,577 2,114 #NUM! #NUM!
FCFF 14,971 32,036 34,922 39,746 22,205 24,476 (2,432) 16,823 17,930 19,234 19,751 -6.5% #NUM! Free Cash Flow to the Firm
add Δdebt (153) (6,210) 1,957 (2,908) 11,604 6,966 25,700 8,325 8,925 10,038 12,711 #NUM! -16.1%
subtract Interest(1-t) (310) (154) (142) (198) (5) (186) (238) (527) (623) (732) (871) 4.9% 38.4%
subtract Preferred cash outflows – – – – – – – – – – – #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
FCFE 14,508 25,673 36,737 36,640 33,803 31,256 23,031 24,621 26,232 28,540 31,590 5.0% 8.2% Free Cash Flow to Equity

DCF Analysis – Equity Cash Flow Method: FCFE//Ke

Ke 7.55% Use Ke because valuing Free Cash Flow to Equity
Terminal Growth Rate 2.50%

Forecast Year -> 1 2 3 4 5 Terminal Value
FCFE -> 23,031 24,621 26,232 28,540 31,590 641,350
PV of future FCFE//Ke 21,414 21,286 21,087 21,332 21,955 445,726 discounted values
Sum of PV of FCFE//Ke 552,800
add cash from balance sheet 4,616 Rf 2.62% CNBC 7/23/2015
add MV of non-operating assets 43,915 β 1.01 Yahoo Finance 7/24/2015
Total Equity Intrinsic Value 601,331 Rm 7.50% Consensus
divide by shares outstanding 4,180 MRP 4.88%
Intrinsic Value per Share $143.86 Ke 7.55%

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Growth vs Cost of Equity
New Terminal Growth Rate
$143.86 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
Max 176.38 5.50% 168.55 185.49 207.28 236.33 277.00 338.01 439.68
Average 146.44 6.00% 152.45 165.76 182.38 203.76 232.27 272.18 332.04
Min 124.35 6.50% 139.29 149.97 163.03 179.35 200.33 228.30 267.46
Range 52.03 7.00% 128.33 137.06 147.55 160.36 176.38 196.97 224.42
7.55% 118.21 125.34 133.75 143.83 156.12 171.44 191.09
8.00% 111.12 117.22 124.35 132.76 142.86 155.21 170.64
8.50% 104.24 109.44 115.43 122.42 130.68 140.60 152.72
9.00% 98.23 102.69 107.79 113.67 120.54 128.65 138.38
9.50% 92.93 96.79 101.17 106.18 111.96 118.70 126.66

DCF Analysis – Corporate Valuation Method: FCFF//WACC

WACC 7.31% Use WACC because valuing Free Cash Flow to the Firm
Terminal Growth Rate 2.50%

Forecast Year -> 1 2 3 4 5 Terminal Value
FCFF -> (2,431.94) 16,822.88 17,930.34 19,234.02 19,750.82 420,774.25
PV of future FCFF//WACC (2,266.25) 14,608.64 14,509.50 14,504.03 13,879.01 295,680.34 discounted values
Value of operations, AKA enterprise value (Sum of PV of FCFF//WACC) 350,915 from Bal Sheet
add cash from balance sheet 4,616 Kpfd
add MV of non-operating assets 43,915 Wpfd 0.00%
Value of the Firm 355,531 Ke 7.55%
subtract MV of debt 13,470 We 96.27% 347,525,200
Total Equity Intrinsic Value 342,061 Kd 1.97%
divide by shares outstanding 4,180 Wd 3.73% 13,470,000
Intrinsic Value per Share $81.83 Tax shield (1-t) 60.1%
Total Capital 360,995,200.0
WACC 7.311%

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Growth vs WACC
New Terminal Growth Rate
$81.83 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00%
Max 97.98 5.50% 93.07 103.67 117.29 135.45 160.88 199.02 262.59
Average 80.70 6.00% 83.02 91.33 101.73 115.10 132.92 157.87 195.30
Min 65.47 6.50% 74.79 81.47 89.63 99.83 112.95 130.44 154.93
Range 32.52 7.00% 67.94 73.41 79.96 87.97 97.98 110.86 128.02
7.31% 64.25 69.11 74.88 81.86 90.45 101.30 115.43
8.00% 57.20 61.01 65.47 70.73 77.04 84.76 94.41
8.50% 52.90 56.15 59.90 64.27 69.43 75.63 83.21
9.00% 49.15 51.94 55.13 58.81 63.10 68.17 74.25
9.50% 45.84 48.26 51.00 54.13 57.74 61.95 66.93

DCF Analysis – Adjusted Present Value Method: FCFF//Ku

Ku 7.43%
Terminal Growth Rate 2.50%

Forecast Year -> 1 2 3 4 5 Terminal Value
FCFF -> (2,432) 16,823 17,930 19,234 19,751 410,846
PV of future FCFF//Ku (2,264) 14,577 14,462 14,441 13,804 287,145 discounted values
Unlevered value of operations (Sum of PV of FCFF//Ku) 342,166
Tax savings from interest (Int * t) 339 360 378 396 410 8,522
PV of future tax savings 315 312 305 298 286 5,956 discounted values
Value of tax shield (Sum of PV of tax savings) 7,472
Value of operations, AKA enterprise value (sum of PVs of FCFF & tax savings) 349,638 Rf 2.62%
add cash from balance sheet 4,616 β levered 1.01
add MV of non-operating assets 43,915 β unlevered 0.99
Value of the Firm 398,169 Rm 7.50%
subtract MV of debt 13,470 MRP 4.88%
Total Equity Intrinsic Value 384,699 CAPM 7.43%
divide by shares outstanding 4,180
Intrinsic Value per Share $92.03

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Growth vs Unlevered Cost of Capital
New Terminal Growth Rate
$92.03 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00%
Max 110.66 5.50% 105.64 116.46 130.36 148.90 174.86 213.79 278.68
Average 92.27 6.00% 95.38 103.87 114.48 128.12 146.32 171.78 209.99
Min 77.46 6.50% 86.98 93.80 102.13 112.55 125.94 143.79 168.78
Range 33.19 7.00% 79.99 85.57 92.26 100.44 110.66 123.80 141.32
7.43% 74.86 79.60 85.23 91.99 100.28 110.68 124.11
8.00% 69.02 72.92 77.46 82.83 89.28 97.16 107.01
8.50% 64.64 67.95 71.78 76.24 81.51 87.84 95.57
9.00% 60.81 63.65 66.91 70.66 75.04 80.22 86.43
9.50% 57.43 59.90 62.69 65.89 69.57 73.88 78.96

RELATIVE VALUATION

26.7 Comparable P/E http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pedata.html
601,331 Total Equity Intrinsic Value
$115.37 Per-share value implied by P/E

1.06 Comparable P/S http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/psdata.html
601,331 Total Equity Intrinsic Value
$70.51 Per-share value implied by P/S

5.90 Comparable EV/EBITDA http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/vebitda.html
294,304.8 Enterprise Value implied by EV/EBITDA
Cash
4,616 add cash from balance sheet
43,915 add MV of non-operating assets
342,836 Value of the Firm
13,470 subtract MV of debt
329,366 Total Equity Intrinsic Value
$78.80 Per-share value implied by EV/EBITDA

VALUATION SUMMARY
Recommendation: Buy Average valuation well above current market price
1-Year Target Price: $97.07 Average of valuations
% Upside/Downside: 16.8% Percent change from from 1-year Target to Market Price

Valuation Market Price
FCFE Valuation $143.86 $83.14
FCFF Valuation $81.83 $83.14 $105.91 Average of cash flow valuations
APV Valuation $92.03 $83.14 $97.07 Average of all six valuation methods
Value based on PE $115.37 $83.14
Value based on P/S $70.51 $83.14 $88.23 Average of comparable valuations
Value based on EV/EBITDA $78.80 $83.14

 

 

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