Posted: January 6th, 2014
Forecasting
People call a suburban hospital’s health hotline at the rate of eighteen per hour on Monday mornings; this can be described by poisson distribution. Providing general information or channeling to other resources takes an average of three minutes per call and varies exponentially. There is one nurse agent on duty on Mondays. Determine each of the following.
A, System utilization
B, Average number in line
C, Average time in line
D, Average time in the system.
Second question: The monthly ambulatory visits occurred in an outpatient clinic.
Months Visits
July 2,160
August 2,186
September 2,246
October 2,251
November 2,243
December 2,162
A, predict visits for January, using the naïve forecast method
B, predict visits for January, using a three-period moving average
C, predict visits for January, using a four-period moving average
Explain which of the three results you have the most confidence in projecting accurately and why that is.
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