Posted: May 16th, 2016

Futures Trading Assignment

Futures Trading Assignment

Note that you must obtain the correct futures prices. Use settlement prices. How to obtain these prices will be demonstrated in one of the first four lectures. Please use the RBA website for figures.

Your full report on all of your trading activity and on the announcement made by the RBA on 5 April 2016 should be limited to 1500.It is expected that approximately 1000 words will be devoted to Part 1.The report must be submitted by 20 May 2016.

Part I

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board will meet on Tuesday 5 April 2016 and at 2:30 pm on that day will announce what the overnight cash rate will be. Using the end-of-day settlement prices for the April 2016 30-day interbank cash rate futures contract prices from 7 March 2016 to 4 April 2016, provide an analysis of what the probabilities were before the announcement that the RBA would change interest rates on 7 April.

Please consider followings:
For Part 1
-Expect probability close to 0 for a change
-Watch AUD/USD if this falls, there will be even lower probability of a cut
-RBA want lower currency to create inflation
-Turnbull government-potential double dissolution
-Brought budget forward to May 3
-Potential election on June