Posted: September 11th, 2015

Sequential probabilities

I. The toss of a fair coin… yet again. Find yourself a shiny, new penny. Imagine you are about to toss your new penny a bunch of times, say 10, then 20, then 30, then 40, in separate though sequential toss tests.
a. Write down your best guess of each toss’ outcome, as in 10, 20, 30, 40. Calculate the probability of a heads in each sequence, and the sequential probabilities for your 30, 60, and 100 tosses.
b. Now toss your shiny new penny 10, 20, 30, and 40 times and record each outcome. Again, calculate the probability of a heads in each sequence, and the sequential probabilities for your 30, 60, and 100 tosses.
c. Discuss your results (i.e., probabilities of tossing a head, length of consecutive heads, etc.).
d. What have you learned?

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