Posted: September 13th, 2017

Shaping the Impact of Disruptive Technologies Session 3&4. Foresight & Qualitative Forward-looking Analysis

Paper, Order, or Assignment Requirements

Download the report “Prospects of Mobile Search” at (http://ftp.jrc.es/EURdoc/JRC56100.pdf). Chapter 5 explains how a scenario excersise has been set up and evaluated for analysing the future of search applications on mobile devices. In Annex1 (page 107) of the report you will find seven prospective scenarios. Repeat the exercise as presented in Chapter 5 by introducing a new additional eight scenarios. For this, do the following steps:
1. Inventandwriteanewscenarioonuseofmobilesearch,aimingatchecking out particular characteristics as stated in Table 11 (page 78). One scenario per group.
2. Define the new questions specific for your new scenario (similar to page 113 onwards). Each group for its own scenario.
3. Set up a survey using
a. the common questions to all scenarios (page 110 onwards. For question 1 replace the Time horizon 2009, 2011, 2015, 2020, never by 2015, 2017, 2020, 2025, never) and
b. the specific questions for your specific scenario (see previous point 2).
The new survey consists now the old 7 scenario plus the new scenarios produced by the group.
For the online survey tool I recommend www.qualtrics.com or similar one.
4. Run the online survey with the 43 students of your course.
5. Carry out evaluation similar to Chapter 5 and analyse the results
a. How does your scenario fit with ensemble?
b. How has the perception of old 7 scenarios changed from 2009 to 2015. Why?
c. Which new conclusions do you draw ?