Posted: February 12th, 2015

STASTICS EXERCISES

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Central English temperature record exercise 2014

Introduction

Reliable temperature data for central England exist, going back to the mind 17^th century.

The datafile temps2014.xlsx (from the Hadley Centre website) contains the seasonal data.

Question 1

Produce a plot of the annual average temperature against calendar year, adjusting the axes suitably, labelling them, and adding a regression line and a moving average line.

Question 2

Test the r² for statistical significance. Interpret your findings (not more than 200 words).

The table below gives critical values for r: DF is degrees of freedom (N-2)

	P-value
DF	0.05	0.02	0.01	0.001	0.0001
10	0.4973	0.5980	0.6581	0.7950	0.8742
50	0.2306	0.2858	0.3218	0.4188	0.4937
100	0.1638	0.2037	0.2301	0.3025	0.3602
200	0.1161	0.1446	0.1636	0.2162	0.2588
353	0.0874	0.1091	0.1234	0.1635	0.1962
354	0.0873	0.1089	0.1233	0.1633	0.1959
355	0.0872	0.1088	0.1231	0.1630	0.1956
356	0.0871	0.1086	0.1229	0.1628	0.1953
500	0.0735	0.0917	0.1038	0.1376	0.1653

Question 3

Do a t-test comparing the last 20 years with a 20-year period before the industrial revolution (which began around 1750). Produce a bar chart with standard error bars and with a caption including your statistical findings.

Question 4

Investigate the theory that the impact of global warming in temperate latitudes has mainly been on winter temperatures. Your write up should have not more than 2 charts (with captions) and not more than 200 words of text (not including the captions).

Each question carries 25% of the total marks.

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