Posted: December 9th, 2014

The Relationship between Criminal Activity, Deterrence, Unemployment and Education in England and Wales – 1991

The Relationship between Criminal Activity, Deterrence, Unemployment and Education in England and Wales – 1991

Project description
There has been considerable interest in the relationship between criminal activity, deterrence variables and social deprivation. Burglary represents one of the main

acquisitive crimes in England and Wales. The data reported below are drawn from forty-two police force areas in England and Wales for the year 1991. A persistent theme

in economics is that individuals respond to incentives: the purpose of this project is to explore the extent to which judicial penalties (sentencing, probability of a

conviction) deter criminal activity and whether crime is related to social problems.

1.Describe the data, using summary statistics and graphs, as appropriate.

2.Calculate the pair-wise correlation coefficients between BR and each of the other variables and test their statistical significance.

3.Estimate a regression model of the form (excluding the ED variable):

BRi = + 1CRi + 2SENi +3HOi + 4URi + ui

where the i subscript corresponds to Police Force Area i, Interpret the coefficients estimates and comment on their economic and statistical significance.

4.Interpret the R2 statistic and test if its statistically significant.

5.Predict the burglary rate when the police solve 30% of crimes [Hint: assume the other independent variables are at their mean].

6.Re-estimate the model including the ED variable and comment on any changes to the results and goodness of fit:

BRi = + 1CRi + 2SENi +3HOi + 4URi + 5EDi + ui

Explain how the omission of ED in part 3. may have biased the results. (Note: it is sufficient to discuss the changes, without explicitly showing the testing

procedure).

7.What conclusions do you draw from your analysis?
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Added on 02.12.2014 17:44
The attached file is the details of the questions. And it required excel analysis to do

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