Posted: September 16th, 2017
This situation report will be an annotated bibliography of an initial literature review outlining gasoline forecasting models in the literature. Analysts in the business world actually do this.
The more recent the article the better. Although you are looking for gasoline demand models, I am not so sure variations of this phrase (i.e.,gasoline demand model) would be a good key search term if you are searching the web for information If you do an internet search I would recommend you use key search terms such as “gasoline demand elasticity”, “gasoline price elasticity“, “gasoline income elasticity” as most of the stuff (i.e., papers using regression) you will find are estimating gasoline demand for the sole purpose of estimating the elasticities of demand. Again, you could try something like “gasoline demand model” or “gasoline forecast model”, but I really don’t think you will get as many hits (maybe a state model or two like the one done for the state of Washington).
summarize each of them in 4-5 sentences.
http://www.ecn.ulaval.ca/~sgor/babble/survey_gasoline_demand.pdf
http://www.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/OxMetrics2012_Papers/Shuangyuan%20Wei-SY%20WEI_An%20analysis%20of%20US%20gasoline%20demand%20elasticities.pdf
http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/midwest.econometrics/Papers/MEGWLiu.pdf
Here is an example of what I need you to do:
1. Hughes, et. al.. (2006). “Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand.” NBER Working Paper, No. 12530.
In Hughes et. al. (2006) the authors compared monthly data for two similar periods of high gasoline prices (1975 to 1980 and 2001 to 2006). The short run price elasticity from 1975 to 1980 was approximately -0.2 to -0.3. The price elasticity from 2001 to 2006 was significantly less than -0.1 (ranging -0.03 to -0.08). However, the income elasticity for the two periods was approximately the same (ranging from +0.2 to +0.7).
The primary model used in the study was a double log equation
Ln Gas Consumption = B0 – LnB1Gas price + LnB2 Income
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