two-period moving average

1. Sales of MP3 players at Just Say Music are as follows:
Month Sales
March 170
April 229
May 192
June 241
July 238
August 210
September 225
October 179

a. Plot the sales data by hand or using EXCEL.[3 points]
b. What is the forecast for November, using a two-period moving average? [2 points]

c. What is the forecast for November, using a three-period moving average? [2 points]

d. Compute MSE for the two- and three-period moving average models for the series and compare your results. [3 points]

e. Is a 2-period or 3-period moving average model better, based on MSE? [1 point]
2.For the data in Problem 1, find the best single exponential smoothing model by evaluating the MSE for ? from 0.1 to 0.9, in increments of 0.1. How does this model compare with the best moving average model found in Problem 4? [HINT: Use the sales data from March, 170, as the forecast for March.] [5 points]

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3. The president of a small manufacturing firm is concerned about the continual growth in manufacturing costs in the past several years. The data series of the cost per unit for the firm’s leading product over the past eight years are given as follows:
Year Cost/Unit ($)
1 20
2 24.5
3 28.2
4 27.5
5 26.6
6 30
7 31
8 36
b. Develop a simple linear regression model for these data. What is the average cost increase per year that the firm has been realizing? [3 points]

c. What is the forecast for year 9? [1 point]