Posted: December 20th, 2014
M118EFA Coursework
This will be a single project of up to 4000 words which will include analysis of an individual stock from both a technical analysis and a fundamental analysis
perspective. To minimise the chances of plagiarism no two students will be allowed to analyse the same stock.
The coursework must be submitted in both hardcopy and electronic forms. The electronic form must be submitted via Turnitin through the module web-site. This is
required to check the submission for plagiarism.
Answer all three sections. Sections A and B should be given the greatest emphasis, with Section C being treated as a concluding section.
You are required to analyse a share from the FTSE 100, or another major stock market, using both market timing and stock picking techniques. NO TWO STUDENTS MAY
ANALYSE THE SAME COMPANY. In addition, the following companies cannot be used as these will be used extensively as examples in the module: BP, BHP, Tesco and Vodafone.
(a) Using a time-frame of your choice, you are required to use appropriate
technical analysis tools to:
(i) identify: price trends, support and resistance levels and common technical patterns (continuation/consolidation and turning point patterns; E.g. head and
shoulders, triangles, flags etc). Discuss whether or not these signals correctly identify the direction of future price movements.
(ii) identify buy and sell signals (Using, for example: MACD, RSI, Bollinger bands or other tools appropriate to your chosen company). Discuss whether or not these
signals correctly identify profitable trading opportunities?
(b) Use appropriate fundamental stock-picking analysis tools to examine your
stock and draw conclusions as to whether or not the stock should be bought at
the current time (For example, as at December 1st 2014).
(c) Discuss whether or not stock market trading using technical analysis and
fundamental analysis based techniques are profitable. You should answer this using evidence from your analysis undertaken above and also by citing relevant evidence
from the academic literature. Reference should be made to the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (see Moodle for references).
.
Further guidance notes.
In respect to part A:
Murphy’s 10 laws of trading can be used as a guideline. For example, you may wish to first identify the trend (or lack of it) as this will guide what types of
methods/techniques should be applied. Once you have identified this you can then examine a shorter time period in detail.
In respect to part B:
In stock picking we can attempt to identify undervalued stocks by estimating the intrinsic value of the stock. We can use techniques such as: ratio analysis, target
pricing or the DDM.
When undertaking this analysis it is recommended that you initially pick a strategy, E.g. value investing, growth or GARP and then examine the data in respect to these
(for example we can apply Graham’s value screens if we are value investors).
Your stock picking analysis should be used to justify you decision as to whether or not the stock should be bought.
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